StageVideo in Adobe AIR 2.6
Sorry!
My carefully crafted title describes a thing that does not exist.
You can get it only on AIR for TV. And I bet your hardware specs do not contain such exotic devices!
And another bummer is that AIR 2.7 won't have it either.
So what can you do?
Well if the thing you're building has a mouse and asking the user to initiate Full Screen is acceptable you can try this.
If you can choose the hardware you have a really good chance with a combo of ARI 2.6, Windows, H.264 and one of the Nvidia cards that support H.264 hw accelerated decoding with Flash.
On Mac you will need OSX 10.6.3+ with NVIDIA GeForce 9400M, GeForce 320M or GeForce GT 330M.
My tests on WinXP with a Quadro FX card were really promising. Running AIR in Full Screen while playing the Fast Five 1080p Trailer 2 file was smooth and took only 50% CPU. Same as Quicktime Player actually.
Testing on Mac was not that promising. On a MBP 13'' with a GeForce 320M CPU was around 100% and the playback was bad. I guess that for now my goal of using Mac Mini as the base hardware for a video kiosk won't happen.
So the conclusion for now is that you can get fast HD video playback in Adobe AIR on any screen across all desktop devices as long as the video is H.264, the device has a specific video card and it runs Windows.
Ford be praised!
Update 16.05.2011:
So I'd say that this would also be an acceptable solution: use AIR on the Mac Mini, lower the encoding to 720p in case the playback is unsatisfactory and update your app to StageVideo + 1080p once StageVideo becomes available on Adobe AIR.
Update 10.11.2011:
However the AIR 3.2 Beta on Labs does have multi-threaded video decoding which "should improve the overall performance on all platforms". Hmmm...